[Carly Hilts]
Tzipi Livni has won the leadership of Israeli political party Kadima, and has been invited to form a government. Now the world will be watching to see whether the former lawyer and Mossad spy will represent a new beginning for her embattled nation.
Billed as ‘Mrs Clean’ in Israel, Livni could be a break with the past, the first female prime minister since the 1970s in a political environment dominated by older military men, many of whom have been linked to allegations of corruption or bribery. Even her predecessor, Ehud Olmert, stood down after multiple corruption investigations.
The question is whether Livni will be able to maintain a strong government. Her party currently holds 29 seats; for a majority she needs 61. Livni has been given six weeks to form a coalition with other parties. If she fails, general elections will be called next year.
Forming a stable coalition will not be an easy task; polls show that several parties- including Likud, the third largest with 12 seats- would benefit from early elections, so Livni will have her work cut out to persuade them to co-operate. Political deals will have to be made, and it is not yet clear how far she will compromise her principles. The fact that she is forced to work quickly by this 42-day limit will not help matters.
Does this mean that Livni cannot be an effective premier for Israel? Perhaps, but past prime ministers have faced similar problems. A greater issue for Livni is the question of authority; she only won the leadership contest by 1.1% of the vote, with 431 votes between her and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz. Is this limited mandate a decisive enough victory to inspire her own party or to encourage other leaders to deal with her?
Some have highlighted her relatively short parliamentary career to suggest that Livni lacks the experience required of a political leader. Elected as an MP for the right-wing Likud party in 1999, she was made Minister for Regional Development in 2001 and went on to hold positions in Immigrant Absorption, Housing and Construction, Justice, and Foreign Affairs. A protégé of former leader Ariel Sharon, she moved with him when he formed Kadima in 2005. Critics claim that Livni is inexperienced regarding national security- an issue considered important in Israel in light of the ongoing controversy with Palestine and the burgeoning nuclear threat of Iran.
However, it is unfair to say that Livni has no relevant experience at all. In 2005 she helped broker Sharon’s controversial withdrawal of Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip, and was Foreign Minister throughout the Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, where she played a key role in negotiating UN resolution 1701 which ended the 34-day conflict. Moreover, since November 2007 she has led a team in talks with the Palestinian Authority, aiming to reach an agreement by 2009.
This brings us to one of the key questions about Livni’s premiership: is Livni likely to bring peace between Israel and Palestine? She is certainly a new kind of leader, a change from the succession of military-minded men that have preceded her, and the fact that she was chosen (however narrowly) over her nearest rival, a retired general, for the leadership, might suggest that Israel feels ready for a different approach.
But how far does Livni represent this new direction? She comes from a strongly Zionist nationalist background, born into a family that believed in a Jewish state including Gaza, the West Bank and an undivided Jerusalem. However, as Foreign Minister she strongly supported the current talks with Palestine, and there is nothing to suggest that she would not continue to do so as Prime Minister; she is even said to be ready to give up territory and to move Jewish settlers. If she truly wants to make a deal with Palestine, however, realistically there will have to be some sharing of Jerusalem. We shall have to see just how far she is willing to compromise for peace.
So are we on the brink of a new start for Israel and Palestine? It is hard to tell. On one level, change does not appear to be imminent. Expansion of settlements on the West Bank- illegal under international law- has continued, while Israel hasn’t removed any ‘outposts’- which are illegal under its own laws- since 2006.
Furthermore, given the precariousness of Livni’s government, even if she were able to broker some agreement with Palestine, there is no guarantee that she could sign it and remain Prime Minister long enough to deliver on it. But let’s not be too pessimistic. This represents the chance for a radical rethink on how to approach the problems facing the Middle East. A fresh mind, a new pair of eyes, a break with tradition. That could be exactly what this troubled part of the world needs.
